Who Really Controls the Pork Industry—and What Comes Next
In this episode of the Farm4Profit Podcast, we sit down with Joe Kerns, a 30-year industry veteran and Iowa State University graduate whose career spans procurement, risk management, nutrition, hedging, livestock marketing, and operational benchmarking.
Joe doesn’t sugarcoat the situation. His perspective raises uncomfortable—but necessary—questions about the future of U.S. agriculture, especially pork production.
The Collapse of Price Discovery in Pork
Joe explains why he believes the pork industry is on the brink of becoming “a serf to the packer.” He traces the roots back to the 1998 hog price collapse and the financial community’s push for mandatory packer contracts.
The result has been dramatic:
The negotiated cash market fell from ~17% in 2002
To roughly 1% today
Leaving producers without meaningful price discovery
Shifting risk almost entirely onto the farm
Without transparent market signals, producers are increasingly forced to operate in the dark—absorbing volatility they can’t control.
Losing Trust in USDA Data
We also dig into the growing erosion of confidence in USDA reporting and what that means on the farm:
Corn yield overestimations that led to poor marketing decisions
September 2024 hog supply miss that sent futures ~$20/head higher
Declining participation in USDA surveys—and the accuracy problem that creates
How flawed data distorts markets, hedging strategies, and producer confidence
When the data guiding billion-dollar decisions is wrong, the consequences land squarely on producers.
A Data-Driven Opportunity for Producers
This episode isn’t just about problems—it’s about opportunity.
Joe outlines how producer-driven, anonymous data aggregation could flip the power dynamic back toward farmers. With enough participation, predictive analytics could unlock insights across:
Genetics
Nutrition
Management practices
Equipment efficiency
Animal health outcomes
Instead of data being a liability, it could become a monetized advantage owned by producers themselves.
Sustainability, Energy, and What Comes Next
We also explore:
Why pork producers may be agriculture’s quiet sustainability success story
How efficiency gains in genetics and feed conversion are reshaping protein production
Why beef prices are likely to remain elevated—and why politics are missing the real issues
The hard realities behind renewable diesel, SAF, and global energy policy
What happens to independent producers if nothing changes
A Decade That Will Define Independence
This is a candid, data-driven conversation about power, control, and survival in modern agriculture—and why the next decade may determine whether producer independence remains viable at all.
🎧 Listen to this episode of the Farm4Profit Podcast on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/farm4profit-podcast/id1470546918
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