But this time its in India. This story from the Wall Street Journal talks about how the green revolution in India is stalled because of government subsidies that favour nitrogen application. As some of you may remember, when we started using fertilizer in western Canada we started with high phosphate analyses. When high nitrogen fertilizers appeared it seemed like they were magic but eventually the high applications of nitrogen appear to lose their effectiveness. Fertilizer application ultimately has to be balanced to nutrient removal by the crop but the Indian government doesn’t appear to have learned that lesson.
If the general thrust of that WSJ story is accurate and the Indian government begins to tender for increased quantities of phosphate and potash relative to its nitrogen purchases then look for continued strength in the potash market and firmer pricing in the phosphate markets.
Its worth noting that the domestic US phosphate market is currently so low that it is likely some exports will occur. In other words, expect higher phosphate pricing going into the spring and summer.
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